A key ocean upwelling event that has occurred like clockwork every year in the Gulf of Panama has failed to emerge this season, due to the disruption of the winds that typically draw cool water from deep in the ocean to the surface. This occurrence—or lack thereof—is “unprecedented,” according to the study’s authors, and could have serious ramifications for not only marine life in the region, but also the people that rely on that ecosystem for their livelihoods.
Typically generated by the northern trade winds that pick up during the dry season in Central America between December and April, this annual upwelling in the Gulf of Panama is supposed to bring cool, nutrient-rich water from deep in the Pacific to the surface, providing food for marine life and moderating the temperature along the coast throughout the summer.
But for the first time since satellites began recording this pattern, the upwelling failed to occur this year, apparently due to a disruption in the winds that are supposed to cause the phenomenon, according to a study led by Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) researchers.
“This finding highlights the growing vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems, which, despite their enormous ecological and socioeconomic importance, remain poorly monitored,” according to an article on the STRI website. “It also underscores the urgency of strengthening ocean-climate observation and prediction capabilities in the planet’s tropical regions.”
STRI’s study revealed that unlike previous years, 2025 saw “unprecedented suppression of [Gulf of Panama] upwelling”; typically, this upwelling would begin January 20 of any given year, and continue for 66 days, with sea surface temperatures (SST) dropping to at least 19°C (66.2°F).
“The 2025 season deviated markedly,” the study text explained: temperatures didn’t drop below the 25°C (77°F) mark until March 4—42 days late—and only lasted for a 12-day period, nearly one-fifth of the usual duration. During this time, the water temperature only dipped as low as 23.3°C (73.9°F), while the entire process “accumulated progressively fewer cold days than any historical year.”
“Water column profiles showed typical upwelling structure in March 2024 versus strong stratification in 2025,” indicating that there was little vertical movement of the water recorded this year, as recorded by researchers aboard the Max Planck Institute’s research vessel, S/Y Eugen Seibold.
Although the trade winds that should have been generating the upwelling were blowing at normal strength, they were only recorded doing so at 26 percent of their normal frequency, resulting in a marked reduction in the cumulative force they would exert on the water. Additionally, “regional analysis confirmed anomalously low offshore wind speeds in 2025.”
Although the study does not speculate on why the trade winds failed to perform this year, it does address the idea that the recent La Niña cycle might have played a role in dampening local wind patterns, it points out that “the 2025 upwelling failure occurred during a weak La Niña with the Gulf experiencing far stronger ENSO cycles without upwelling failure.” And while no firm conclusion can be drawn quite yet, the failure of the Gulf of Panama upwelling brings to mind circulation problems in the North Atlanticand the Southern Ocean that circles Antarctica, changes attributed to global warming.
“Failed upwelling will likely reduce primary productivity with cascading effects through marine food webs and declines in commercial and subsistence fisheries,” the study warns. “Of equal concern is the potential exacerbation of thermal stress on coral reefs, which without upwelling likely face more prolonged thermal stress, potentially leading to more extensive bleaching.
“Whether the 2025 event signals the first of future failed upwellings warrants investigation through enhanced monitoring, predictive modeling, and targeted research on the interactions between oceanography, ecology, and human resource dependence in tropical upwelling systems.”