Global average temperatures will exceed the sought after limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels within the next decade unless drastic cuts are made to greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report warns that if current trends in environmental policies continue as they are, this goal will be rendered unattainable, a path that will inevitably lead to a climate shift that could prove to be devastating to Earth’s population.

“Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade,” according to the UNEP’s 2025 Emissions Gap Report, released on November 4.

The 1.5°C (2.7°F) warming limit was initially agreed upon by the world’s nations a decade ago with 2015’s Paris Agreement, using a target arrived at through the scientific evaluation of the effects that different temperature ranges would be expected to produce, such as droughts, heat waves, hurricanes and wildfires. The effects projected to be generated by a 1.5°C increase was deemed to be manageable by human society, but beyond that limit the toll exacted by the increasing severity of these climate change-fueled disasters would become unsustainable, especially for developing countries and low-elevation island nations.

The report estimates that human-generated greenhouse gas emissions will need to be slashed by 35 percent by 2035 just to keep global temperatures within the Paris Accord’s backup plan temperature of 2°C (3.6°F) above industrial levels, and a full 55 percent if we’re to avoid blowing past the now-seemingly-improbable goal of 1.5°C. While many advances have been made in regards to shifting energy production away from fossil fuel use, the overall trend in climate policies has not kept pace with increases in greenhouse gas emissions, with 2024’s global carbon dioxide levels having jumped 3.5 parts-per-million (ppm) from the previous year to a record-breaking 423.9 ppm, 152 percent over pre-industrial levels.

As the hosts of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the Brazil delegation is expected to announce the formation of a new global environment council that will have the authority to track how the progress of participating countries measures up to their climate pledges.

“We want it to be serious, and for the things we decide to be implemented,” stated Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in regards to the new council, “because otherwise nothing will happen.”