Over the summer of 2016 in the southern hemisphere, the world’s largest ice shelf, Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf, suffered a massive surface melt event that covered an area larger than the state of Texas, with the meltwater pooling in some areas for over two weeks.
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The World Meteorological Organization is forecasting a possible return of the El Niño phenomenon to the Pacific Ocean later this year, hot on the heels of the 2015-2016 back-to-back El Niño events, with only a short-lived, milquetoast La Niña cooling period having occurred in between.
The WMO, drawing on recent observations, climate models and historical trends, predicts that there is a 50-60 percent chance of a reoccurrence of El Niño before 2017 ends. Regional El Niño-associated warming in the Eastern Pacific has already caused heavy rains in Peru and Ecuador, leading to extensive flooding. The sea surface temperatures in the far eastern tropical Pacific have been 2ºC above normal during February and March.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast that temperatures for the months of August, September and October will be above average for the United States, including both the contiguous states and Alaska. According to research into NOAA’s archives on the matter done by Gizmodo, a forecast stretch of above-average temperatures this long is unprecedented.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced that 2015-2016’s 15-month, record-breaking El Niño is over, with a 75 percent possibility for La Niña conditions to form in the Pacific Ocean by the end of autumn.
"There’s nothing left," explains NOAA Climate Prediction Center deputy director Mike Halpert. "Stick a fork in it, it’s done."
This past cycle saw record-breaking temperatures around the globe, making 2015 the hottest year on record, and setting up 2016 to break that record. It also contributed to a record hurricane season in the Pacific, and droughts in Africa and India. Massive coral bleaching and numerous red tide events, caused by high water temperatures, marred the year as well.
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