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A cluster of thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean has organized into the 16th tropical depression of the Atlantic’s hurricane season, and is expected to become the season’s 14th named storm, Nate. The storm is forecast to cut across the northeastern tip of the Yucatán Peninsula and track northward toward the U.S.read more

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Two 6.1 earthquakes struck in the Pacific, one near the island of Vanuatu and the other off the coast of Japan uncomfortably near the damaged Fukushima power plant. At the same time, frantic rescue efforts have brought out a citizen army in Mexico city who are helping overstressed emergency services. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is causing a catastrophe on the island of Puerto Rico, where all electric power has failed and 155 MPH sustained winds are destroying infrastructure and gigantic flash floods are roaring down the mountainsides.
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Hurricane Maria devastated Dominica with 165MPH winds and was the first Category 5 hurricane ever to strike the island. It is now headed toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and is continuing to strengthen. A typical autumnal weather pattern over the continental United States is expected to keep it offshore of the mainland as it turns north. Should it hit pockets of warm water in the South Atlantic, it has the potential to recover its strength. There is a remote possibility that it could surprise forecasters and move into the Caribbean.

All storm track models now see Maria moving northward well out to sea, but if it impacts the remains of Jose, it could still be pushed onshore somewhere along the Atlantic seaboard.
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Tropical storm Maria is likely to become a powerful hurricane and appears headed along the same path into the Caribbean that Irma took. Meanwhile, Lee appears to be organizing off Cape Verde while Jose,a category 1 hurricane with 80MPH winds seems likely to stay out at sea. If Maria becomes a hurricane, it could form into an extremely dangerous storm, and until south central Atlantic and Caribbean waters cool in November, similar storms could continue to form.

However, normal seasonal air flow southward across the United States is more and more likely to prevent these systems from affecting the US mainland. Not so the Caribbean, which will remain vulnerable throughout hurricane season.
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