Mubarak steps down. Now comes the tricky bit.

Egypt is not even close to being a democracy. It is a military dictatorship and Hosni Mubarak was a figurehead. Now, the military will be in the position of either continuing to govern through surrogates, in which case a number of powerful generals are liable to start jockying for power, or the military will realize its actual situation and start preparing for democracy. Everything depends on a genuinely honest election in September. But will it be honest? And, if it is, will Islamists gain inordinate power in a country that is ruled–so far–by the pious and the elderly, but mostly populated by a secular, educated youth? It cannot be forgotten that Egypt gave its young people good educations, so they are well capable of self-government. But it did not follow through with jobs, so then, when food prices skyrocketed last fall due to extreme heat in Russia last summer, they became furious. Climate, then, was the spark that lit the fire, as is almost always true.